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National Aviation Day - A Look Forward
December 1903 marked man’s first true attempt to conquer the skies. Since then, we have flown passengers to every edge of the globe, gone supersonic and walked on the moon all in the last 115 years. So what will the next 50 years of progress look like?
Today is National Aviation Day!
December 1903 marked man’s first true attempt to conquer the skies. Since then, we have flown passengers to every edge of the globe, gone supersonic and walked on the moon all in the last 115 years. So what will the next 50 years of progress look like?
Supersonic Flight
As I type, there are men and women working to bring sustainable and efficient supersonic flight to both commercial and business aviation. Sure, the Concorde made the hop from JFK to Heathrow at twice the speed of sound, but it was never really economically viable. Aerion Supersonic has teamed up with Boeing and GE to produce a supersonic business jet (SSBJ) that is slated to enter service in 2025
Aerion AS2
Space Travel
Cities like Houston, Texas are already investing huge amounts of money into a future of space travel. The long-term goal of Houston’s Spaceport and facilities like it is the idea of orbital or sub-orbital travel. In a future where we have a safe and effecient way to get into low earth orbit, trips around the globe that currently take 15+ hours on air carriers can be completed in a little over an hour. Not to mention, trips to further locales, like Mars may become more routine.
Houston Spaceport
Urban Air Mobility
Uber has made it clear that they intend to take to the skies to provide air connectivity high above the traffic on the streets below. It may seem far-fetched until you understand that Boeing, Embraer ,and Bell Helicopter (to name a few) are all heavily involved in the research and development of the program. This project aligns with a similar objective to bring electric turbines to the aircraft market - promising a quieter, greener, more reliable alternative.
Uber Elevate
The Future of Aviation is Bright
Aviation has always pushed the boundaries of what is humanly possible. With a new onset of fresh ideas and creative vision, the next generation of flight is well underway. No matter what the future will look like, I know aviation will continue to be at the forefront of innovation and continue to make the world a smaller, more connected place.
Cameron Tipton, ASA, ARM-MTS
Author:
Cameron Tipton, ASA, ARM-MTS
accredited senior appraiser
appraisal review & management - MTS
What is Appraisal Review? (and why it's important)
Appraisers provide critical valuations across every industry. What are the safeguards against erroneous reports? Who is keeping the industry in check? Let’s explore the behind-the-scenes truth of the appraisal practice and what it takes to be an appraisal reviewer.
The Credibility of an Entire Profession
Appraisers of all disciplines perform a critical role in the financing, insuring and transacting of all sorts of assets. While appraiser’s do not create value in the assets they appraise, they do form the bedrock of how entire industries understand (and perceive) their monetary worth. As such, the responsibility of an appraiser to perform their job diligently is critical; errors can be catastrophic. So who really gets to decide whether an appraisal is valid? After all, everyone has an opinion about what something should be worth. Luckily, in the United States we have the Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice (USPAP as we call it in the biz). There is a long history to the creation of USPAP that revolves around a need to standardize the methods that appraisers use in reaching value conclusions to enhance the overall credibility of valuations that the public relies upon. This standard provides a minimum construct that accredited appraisers MUST adhere to when doing effectively anything that relates to valuation services. USPAP does a great job in providing appraisers broad flexibility in how they approach individual appraisal assignments while issuing a framework for ethical and professional standards that one should uphold. Ultimately, it is the adherence and certification to the adherence of these standards that allows the public to trust the valuations they use daily. Now that there is an understanding of why all appraisals should be credible and valid, let me explain what happens when they simply, aren’t.
Appraisal Review: Structured Oversight
Just as USPAP provides structure to those writing appraisals, it also provides the standards for reviewing someone else’s appraisal assignment. This is know as Appraisal Review. Let’s say a particular asset finds itself in the middle of a legal dispute (no fault of its own), and the prosecution hires an appraiser to determine the value of said asset, in this case, let’s call it a Gulfstream G650. Maybe this appraisal is 2 pages long with little explanation of how this appraiser reached their value conclusions and it also comes out $9 million higher than an appraisal that was ordered by the bank one year prior. Reasonably, this appraisal might be called into question and a designated Appraisal Reviewer would be engaged to review the assignment. This review might be purely for verifying compliance with USPAP or it may include an opinion of value, if the reviewer is qualified to provide an aircraft appraisal. The reviewer would review the work and produce a report that explains (in heavy detail) any issues that were identified. Not only does this aid the jury in understanding how much weight to apply to that appraisal but it could result in having a misleading report removed from the case entirely.
More Training and a Higher Standard
The American Society of Appraisers (and most appraisal organizations) has a path for senior appraisers to become appraisal reviewers. In the ASA it requires completion of two 30 hour appraisal review and management courses with comprehensive exams as well as approval from a board of examiners. This allows those appraisers to review the work of other appraisers within their discipline (in my case that is “Machinery & Equipment”) for USPAP compliance or to issue an opinion about the actual value conclusions if they are equipped to do so (longer story for another day). These reviewers are called upon to continue to assure the public that the appraisal profession as a whole is not only credible but that there is oversight for instances where there may have been a shortfall. After all, entire industries depend on us.
Author:
Cameron Tipton, ASA, ARM-MTS
accredited senior appraiser
appraisal review & management - MTS
What happened to the allure of the airlines? From Pan Am and the 747 to today.
From flying the 747 on Pan American Airways during the Golden Age of Aviation to the high-density configuration of modern airlines, what happened to the way we fly?
October, 2017
I arrive at Houston Intercontinental airport for an 8AM flight to Denver. Although I have Global Entry, which allows me to utilize the TSA Pre-check lane, the line through security is moving as slow as molasses and takes half an hour to get to the security checkpoint. Then the dreaded high pitch beep of the metal detector rings loud for all to stare and wait on me as I’m patted down by a disgruntled and exhausted security worker. Once he is done violating my dignity at 6:45 in the morning I head to the United Club to seek some solace, coffee and a quick bite to eat. However even in the one area of the airport where there may be some reprieve I find none, the food left out for us “Club Members” is stale and the coffee, burnt. To add insult to injury all comfortable seats are taken by shabby jet-lagged travelers or families whose kids are turning common areas into playgrounds, so I’m forced to take residence center stage at a particularly awkward table next to the oatmeal bar. All I can think is -
“what happened to the allure of flying commercial?”
Take a step back in time to 1970, Pan-Am took a giant leap towards a more accessible world with the inauguration of the “Queen of the Skies”, the Boeing 747. The 747 was a game changer, an aircraft so iconic and extraordinary that it has remained in production for almost half a century. Embarking on a flight from New York to London was far more than just a couple movies to watch and a decent meal.
These were the days when the world was excited to fly.
Teague
The 747 boasted not only incredible leg room and seat breadth, but style, luxury and an experience worth talking about. Upper cabin bars, full in-flight dining, couches and lounges galore and service far beyond today’s standard complementary smile and ounce of pretzels. Flying was a highly anticipated experience as much as it was a necessity. So much so that in one year’s time from the adopting of the 747 Pan-Am alone transported 11 million passengers over 20 billion miles. People were excited about air travel, airplanes and were simply enjoying the act itself, flying.
Ultimately rising oil prices and the Airline Deregulation Act of 1978 caused a fundamental shift in future of commercial aviation. Because the fare was no longer set by the federal government there was far less focus on airline differentiation on the basis of service or amenities. The establishment of a free market led to lower barriers to entry for new competitors, increased air travel, established new routes, and decreased the average fare enabling more Americans to be able to fly. This was the beginning of the end of the “Golden Age of Aviation” and legacy airlines like Pan American Airways.
Today, most legacy airlines were forced to close their doors or be absorbed by newer more lucrative providers and dreams of the luxurious facets of commercial flight are just that, dreams. It’s a sad reality, but most Americans have become desensitized to the extraordinary feat of being 7 miles in the air at 614 miles per hour. The airlines know this and have listened to what we want, not by what we have said, but what we will pay. They have added more seats per aisle than ever thought possible, with most airlines opting for ten abreast high density configuration for long-haul aircraft. Seat sizes themselves have shrunk to accommodate the airlines attempt to capitalize on economy seating to only 17 inches wide, for reference the average stadium seat today has remained an uncomfortable 19 inches. This being said some foreign airlines like Emirates still have the luxuries and level of comfort comparable to those of the height of jumbo jet travel, at a cost –double the time and money.
It’s hard to distinguish what was the height of international travel from what the airlines have become today. We line up like cattle when our boarding group is called and eagerly push people along so we can be at ease in our seat with luggage stowed. We choose having TV monitors to distract us from the lack of leg room. We put on our headphones to establish a barrier between us and the man whose torso is protruding over the armrest onto ours. The airlines have met us where we are willing to pay and we have come to accept the terms.
Where has the allure gone? To private aviation. Those, like me, understand that although the 747 is retiring and airliners are becoming sardine cans, the experiences and capabilities that used to be common on the legacy airlines are still available. What is often thought as a luxury left only to the “Zuckerbergs” of the world is far more economical and accessible than ever before. Manufacturers in private aviation HAVE listened to our concerns and responded with aircraft operating at significantly lower costs, full air-frame parachutes and comfortable luxurious cabins. Whatever your travel prerequisites are there is a solution in private aviation for you, whether it is aircraft ownership, a jet card, membership program, ad hoc charter, fractional ownership or holding a lease.
September 2018
I arrive at West Houston Airport for a 7 AM flight to Denver and put in the access code to the gate. We park the car next to the plane in the hangar where the pilot Jack greets us and helps with our bags. Five minutes later, we taxied out and were wheels up for Denver. All the while discussing new market potentials, playing a game or two of cards and never having to distract myself from any of the nuisances that I had with the airlines a year prior.
